Projecting the Future Path of Global E-commerce
PCMI’s comprehensive data collection on e-commerce and digitization
PCMI E-Commerce Data Library
PCMI projects that e-commerce in Latin America will exceed USD$509 billion in 2023, up 27% over 2022 and CAGR of 23% through 2026. Instant payments such as Pix, increased banking penetration and cross-border e-commerce are driving this growth—and generating deeper e-commerce penetration.
Latin America has moved firmly into a multi-rail environment, in which RTPs, wallets and open banking are facilitating rapid online payments, even as cards maintain majority market share. Regulation, taxes, fraud complicate the landscape further. We developed this unique dataset and trends report to help companies get clarity.
Using real, transactional data combined with expert insight from industry stakeholders, the PCMI E-commerce Data Library provides perspective on retail, travel, and digital goods volume origin (cross-border vs. domestic), and deep insight into the rapidly changing and competitive payment method landscape in e-commerce in Latin America. Networks, merchants, payment providers and others leverage this dataset to guide their strategic decision making.
Key Markets
Coverage of 15 e-commerce markets in Latin America:
Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Mexico, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, and Uruguay.
The full dataset is available for purchase along with individual country dataset and customized country bundles.
Data available in the PCMI E-commerce Data Library
E-commerce data included:
Historical volume and projections of each country’s e-commerce markets in USD between 2020-2026; broken down by
- Merchant vertical: retail, travel, ride-hailing and delivery apps, streaming, gaming, and other services
- Device: mobile purchases versus desktop
- Origin: cross-border purchases versus domestic
- Payment method: internationally-enabled credit card, domestic-only credit card, debit card, cash vouchers, digital wallets, Pix, bank transfers, Buy Now Pay Later, and other methods
Additional breakdowns available upon request
Market data included:
Digital penetration in 2023
- Financial account penetration
- E-commerce penetration
- Internet penetration
- Smartphone penetration
- Annual e-commerce expenditure per capita
Deliverables
Standard report
For each market, PCMI publishes a standardized Excel report containing the keystone data described above
Click here to download a sample of the report
(Excel file, 384 KB)
Pricing:
- US$2,500 per individual market
- Country bundles and custom packages available upon request
Customized report
PCMI can create customized reports in Excel or PPT based on your needs.
Price quoted upon request.
The Extended 2023 PCMI Latin America E-commerce Blueprint
Regional summary PDF report showcasing key data and e-commerce trends.
Pricing:
- $2,900 for PDF report with 53 slides of content
65% off when buying our Data Library.
Disponible también en español.
Any purchase includes a 1-hour consultation with a PCMI subject matter expert to review and discuss the data.
Methodology and definitions
15 core markets
To develop the data on each market, PCMI first compiles all relevant data from publicly available sources including local chambers of commerce, e-commerce associations, local press, market reports and regulator and government statistics, as well as data from the World Bank and affiliated international organizations. The PCMI team analyzes the data with a critical approach, identifying the holes, errors, and inconsistencies in this data to prepare it for primary research. Then, PCMI conducts interviews with local e-commerce industry stakeholders to clarify, deepen, and streamline data collected via secondary research. In the creation of this dataset, we interviewed over 50 e-commerce executives across the 15 markets covered in the 2023 update of the data, including banks, acquirers, payment gateways, payment service providers, merchants, and consultants. Finally, PCMI conducts a rigorous triangulation of the primary and secondary results, leveraging the perspective of our historical data collected since we first began building this dataset in 2015, to arrive at the final results.
How do we define e-commerce?
In this data set, “e-commerce” refers to all online purchases of goods and services, regardless of the device or payment method used. “Online” is defined as processed through a merchant’s online checkout.
Our analysis includes:
- All product and service verticals, including retail, travel, and digital goods and services.
- Retail is defined as: All physical products purchased directly from the merchant or marketplace.
- Travel is defined as: Travel services including airline tickets, car rentals, tour packages, hotels and AirBnB stays.
- Ride hailing and delivery is defined as: Digital services that include services include ride-hailing and food delivery apps, this excludes payments made in cash.
- Online gaming is defined as: Spend on online games or in-game purchases, which can be played via mobile, desktop, or a dedicated console.
- Online streaming is defined as: Access to media players that transmit video and/or audio content, typically purchased as a subscription.
- Other digital goods and services is defined as: All digital goods and services including online education, digital downloads, mobile top-ups, SaaS, and recurring purchases such as monthly bills, insurance payments, school tuition payments, home ownership association fees, taxes and government licenses and fees if they are paid online over an e-commerce gateway. These expenses are not included if they are paid via online banking or direct debit from a checking or savings account. Recurring payments to a credit or debit card are included, as are one-time payments over an online ACH portal such as Botón PSE in Colombia.
- Cross-border purchases made with locally issued payment methods
- All purchases made using locally-issued payment methods including:
- International and local credit and debit cards, online bank transfers, cash vouchers, such as Oxxo in Mexico, digital wallets such as PayPal, MercadoPago, Apple Pay, cash on delivery, and other miscellaneous payment methods.
- Please note the following definitions:
- Cash voucher is defined as a payment method that enables a shopper to make an online order, receive a bar code or unique PIN and use that bar code or PIN to make the payment in cash at an affiliated retail location. Such platforms often allow payment using an online bank transfer. Examples include Oxxo in Mexico, PagoEfectivo in Peru and boleto bancario in Brazil. Please note that SafetyPay is included in bank transfers
- Digital wallet: PCMI defines a digital wallet as a payment method that stores any funding source on file, including a credit card, debit card, bank account, or stored balance, and uses that funding source to remit payment. E-commerce volume falls into the digital wallet category if the wallet brand is selected at checkout, even if a different funding source (such as a credit card) is ultimately selected to fund the purchase. Examples include card-on-file wallets such as PayPal and Apple Pay, as well as stored balance wallets like TigoMoney and MercadoPago.
- Bank transfer: Bank transfer is defined as a payment originating from a customer’s bank account, facilitated by an online service provider. PSE Colombia is included in this category. Due to its large volume, Pix (Brazil) is in its own category, but by this definition, is considered a bank transfer.
- BNPL is defined as a payment button offered by a BNPL fintech that enables the shopper to finance the purchase at the time of checkout, with multiple payment methods, including credit cards, debit cards, bank transfers or cash.
- B2C and B2B expenditure that is processed through a merchant’s website and its e-commerce payment provider.
Our analysis excludes:
- Payments made by international visitors
- Payments made via P2P apps, wallets or bank transfer, including Pix, that are arranged informally between buyer and seller and that do not flow formally through a merchant’s website and e-commerce payment provider. This includes commerce facilitated via social media, WhatsApp or marketplaces
- Any in-store purchases, including Pix, QR codes and P2P payments
- Payments made in cash for ride-hailing services and delivery app orders
- Purchases made via bank transfer or wire transfer that do not pass through a merchant’s website and e-commerce payment provider. This includes a large part of SaaS and B2B expenditure
Please note:
PCMI’s e-commerce market sizes are often higher than what is published by other common sources like eMarketer, Statista, and local reports. Here, it is essential to consider the definition of ‘e-commerce’ being used. Many reports only consider retail when reporting e-commerce volume. Others consider only domestic purchasing, and others exclude certain payment methods. PCMI’s e-commerce market size is reflective of all verticals, payment methods and origin, excluding only what is explicitly listed above.
Accuracy and margin of error
While PCMI cannot guarantee an exact margin of error, based on our experience dealing with this data, in the top six markets (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Peru), PCMI estimates a maximum 10% margin of error. In smaller markets, the margin of error may go up, since there is less public data available, but margin of error should not exceed 20%.
Other technical specifications
Unless otherwise stated, all currency is expressed in US dollars.
Please note that numbers contained in figures and tables may not add due to rounding.
Contents and methodology
1. What information is included in the Data Library?
- E-commerce market size measured in transaction volume (USD)
- E-commerce volume breakdowns, including:
Vertical
- Retail
- Travel
- Ride hailing & delivery apps
- Streaming
- Gaming
- Other
Device
- Desktop
- Mobile
Origin
- Cross-border
- Domestic
Payment method:
- Credit card
- Debit card
- Digital wallet
- Bank transfers/Pix
- Buy Now Pay Later
- Cash
- Other
- Each datapoint is provided in volume (USD), YoY growth, and % share of total
- Years: 2020-2026 for every datapoint mentioned above
- Additional 2023 market data:
- Population
- Financial account penetration
- E-commerce penetration
- Internet penetration
- Smartphone penetration
2. What countries are covered?
Today, 15 countries are included in the dataset: Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Mexico, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, and Uruguay. More global markets added soon!
3. What years does it cover?
- E-commerce data is available for 2020-2026 in all markets.
- Years available:
- 2016-2026: Argentina, Chile, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, Mexico, Panama, Peru, Uruguay
- 2018-2026: Brazil, Colombia
- 2019-2026: Guatemala
- 2020-2026: Bolivia, Ecuador, El Salvador, Paraguay
- Market data available for 2020-2023
4. What is your methodology?
To develop the data on each market, PCMI first compiles all relevant data from publicly available sources including local chambers of commerce, e-commerce associations, local press, market reports and regulator and government statistics, as well as data from the World Bank and affiliated international organizations. The PCMI team analyzes the data with a critical approach, identifying the holes, errors, and inconsistencies in this data to prepare it for primary research. Then, PCMI conducts interviews with local e-commerce industry stakeholders to clarify, deepen, and streamline data collected via secondary research. In the creation of this dataset, we interviewed over 50 ecommerce executives across the 15 markets covered in the 2023 update of the data, including banks, acquirers, payment gateways, payment service providers, merchants, and consultants. Finally, PCMI conducts a rigorous triangulation of the primary and secondary results, leveraging the perspective of our historical data collected since we first began building this dataset in 2015, to arrive at the final results.
5. When is the data updated? Does this purchase entitle me to access updated data?
A thorough, full-effort analysis is conducted in the first half of each year. Then is updated in October/November of each year based on updates of publicly available information (i.e. card and RTP volumes published by local Central Banks).
PCMI clients can purchase the updated data in Q4 of each year at a deeply discounted rate. Please contact us for a customized quote
6. How accurate is this data?
While we cannot guarantee an exact margin of error, based on our experience dealing with this data, in the top six markets (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Peru), PCMI estimates a maximum 10% margin of error. In smaller markets, the margin of error may go up, since there is less public data available, but margin of error should not exceed 20%.
Data access and usage
7. What happens if we have questions once we receive the data?
Any purchase includes a 1-hour phone consultation with one of our industry experts
8. Can I request data customizations?
PCMI can expand on the data and customize it to fit your team’s needs. Contact us to inquire
9. Is the data provided as a single-user license or otherwise restricted?
The data is delivered in Excel format with no access restrictions, so you can share it freely within your organization.
10. Can I use the data externally?
If you wish to use the data in external documents, you may do so citing us. You may do this using the following conventions: “Payments and Commerce Market Intelligence,” “PCMI,” or “The PCMI 2023 E-commerce Data Library.”
Purchase process
11. How does the purchase process work?
- Contact us to receive your quote.
- For any customizations, please provide your availability for a brief alignment call.
- Within 24 hours, we will reach out to confirm how you will pay.
- We will send our invoice for payment.
- Upon receipt of paying, we will send the data within 30 minutes
12. When will I receive the data?
- Within 30 minutes of paying the invoice.
- Customized data and reports will vary depending on scope.
13. What payment methods do you accept?
Wire, ACH, PayPal